Novel coronavirus pneumonia has been actively promoted in China as a whole, and the overall recovery of the economy has been improving. Especially in the automotive market, the sales promotion has been continuously improved. Experts remind that from the perspective of the development trend of the industry, although the production and sales growth momentum is good this month, the terminal inventory of enterprises has increased significantly. Therefore, enterprises should pay attention to inventory changes and avoid increasing the burden of enterprises due to excessive inventory.
On July 11, China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") released the production and sales data of China's automobile market in July. On the whole, China's automobile industry continued the recovery momentum in the second quarter of this year, and all production and marketing indicators showed year-on-year growth. Among them, the sales volume of commercial vehicles increased by nearly 60% year-on-year, and new energy vehicles achieved positive year-on-year growth for the first time this year.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Association, said that on the whole, the current automobile production and sales momentum is very good and hopes to continue.

Production and sales continued to show double-digit growth

According to the data of China Automobile Association, in July, automobile production and sales completed 2.201 million and 2.112 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 5.3% and 8.2% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 21.9% and 16.4% respectively.
From the cumulative production and sales, from January to July, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.314 million and 12.365 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% and 12.7% respectively, 5 and 4.2 percentage points narrower than that from January to June.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia Deputy Secretary General Chen Shihua said that in July 2020, with China's overall efforts to promote new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development work has achieved positive results, the overall recovery of the economic situation continues to improve, especially under the promotion of various consumer policies, the market owners to accelerate the pace of resumption of business, the orderly increase of residents' consumption and the gradual improvement of market vitality. Market sales continued to improve. In this context, automobile production and sales continued the recovery momentum since the second quarter and maintained a good operation trend.
According to the data, from January to July, the total sales volume of the top 10 enterprise groups in automobile sales was 11.036 million, accounting for 89.3% of the total automobile sales, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year.
"Big companies are doing well." Chen Shihua said. Recently, automobile enterprises have successively released the latest sales data. The sales volume of Geely Automobile in July reached 105000, a year-on-year increase of 15%; Great Wall Motors sold 78300 vehicles at home and abroad, up 30% year-on-year. Among them, Great Wall Motors exported 6300 vehicles in July, up 75% month on month.
In terms of market share, the sales volume of Chinese brand passenger cars reached 585000 in July, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The market share also rebounded for the first time in nearly four months, rising to 35.1% from the lowest 33.6% in June. The market share of German and Japanese brands continued to rise, while the market share of American and Korean brands decreased. In terms of exports, China's automobile exports in July were basically the same as last month, at 62000. China Automobile Association said that if the overseas epidemic does not recover significantly in the second half of the year, China's automobile export market is still not optimistic.
From the inventory situation, the inventory pressure of automobile enterprises further increased in July, from 972000 at the beginning of the month to 1085000 at the end of the month, an increase of 11.6%. Among them, the inventory of passenger cars increased by 12.4%, and the inventory of commercial garages increased by 9.5%.
"From the historical data, the production and sales of China's auto market reached a relatively high level in the same period in July this year." Chen Shihua also reminded the automotive industry that, from the perspective of industry development trend, although the production and sales growth momentum is good this month, the enterprise terminal inventory has increased significantly. Therefore, enterprises should pay attention to inventory changes and avoid increasing the burden of enterprises due to excessive inventory.

Commercial vehicles have made brilliant achievements

In July, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 472000 and 447000 respectively, down 10.4% and 16.6% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 70.3% and 59.4% respectively. In terms of models, passenger cars showed a double-digit decline in a single month, while freight cars grew very rapidly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 71.1%.
The attribute of the means of production of commercial vehicles determines that its demand has a strong correlation with GDP growth and fixed asset investment. This year, under the influence of the epidemic, the pressure of economic growth has promoted the easing of the domestic credit environment, which makes the infrastructure and other industries drive the outbreak of upstream commercial vehicle demand.
Chen Bin, executive vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation, said recently that the market recovery of investment products was faster than expected, and the market recovery of consumer products was slower than expected.
Benefiting from the growth of commercial vehicle production and sales, commercial vehicle enterprises also benefited significantly. The reporter learned from Dongfeng that Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. sold 20000 medium and heavy trucks in July, a year-on-year increase of 59.1%; From January to July, 126600 medium and heavy trucks were sold, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. sold 14600 vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 33.4%; From January to July, 96200 cars were sold, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%.

Positive year-on-year growth rate of new energy

In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 100000 and 98000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15.6% and 19.3% respectively, the first increase since this year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 79000 and 78000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.9% and 24.2% respectively; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 21000 and 19000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8% and 2.7% respectively.
BYD's latest sales data also showed that its sales reached 31300 vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. After six consecutive months of decline in sales, BYD ushered in the first positive growth in sales in the year in July. In addition to the continued strong growth of the fuel vehicle sector, the recovery of the new energy vehicle sector is the main driving force.
"Such a large increase is mainly due to the low production and sales base in July after the decline of subsidies last year." Xu Haidong said that based on the current pressure of new energy vehicles going to the countryside and double points at the end of the year, new energy vehicles will maintain a relatively stable growth in the next few months of this year. It is expected that the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicle market this year will be 1.1 million. At the same time, he pointed out that among the sales of 1.1 million new energy vehicles, Tesla's sales are expected to be about 100000.
From the data, from January to July this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 496000 and 486000, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7% and 32.8% respectively, which continued to be narrower than that from January to June. However, if you want to complete the sales expectation of 1.1 million vehicles, you need to complete the sales of 614000 new energy vehicles in the next five months, that is, the monthly average sales target of 122800 vehicles.
Chen Shihua said that a series of consumption promotion policies issued by the state are gradually playing a role, which is good for the long-term development of the automobile market; In the first half of the year, the consumption promotion policies implemented by various localities came to an end.
"It is hoped that local governments will introduce more, wider and more stable policies and ensure their implementation as soon as possible." Chen Shihua said that industry enterprises should pay close attention to the changes in the domestic market and the introduction and implementation of national and local policies, timely adjust the pace of production and operation, and steadily promote the high-quality development of enterprises.